Overview
NASA has set an audacious goal: landing on the Moon as many as 21 times over the next two and a half years. That's roughly one landing per month—a pace far beyond anything attempted since the Apollo era. To make this happen, the agency must fundamentally rethink how it buys lunar landers, fix persistent technical and supply chain problems, and learn hard lessons from recent failures (three of the last four US landing attempts have faltered).
These robotic and cargo missions are separate from NASA's Human Landing System (HLS) program, which is developing crew-rated landers under contracts with SpaceX and Blue Origin for Artemis astronaut trips. The cargo landers will deliver payloads to scout future base sites, demonstrate technologies for larger vehicles, mining, resource utilization, and operations during the two-week lunar night. This guide explains what needs to happen—step by step—for NASA to reach this ambitious cadence.
Prerequisites
Before NASA can achieve monthly landings, several foundational elements must be in place:
- Improved oversight of the industrial base – NASA must closely monitor its contractors to ensure quality and schedule adherence.
- Better supply chain management – Delays in parts, materials, and subsystems have historically derailed timelines.
- Rectification of known technical issues – The failures of recent US landers (e.g., Peregrine, IM-1) revealed propulsion, navigation, and communication flaws that must be corrected.
- New procurement approaches – Instead of large, long-duration contracts, NASA may need smaller, more flexible, milestone-based agreements that foster competition and rapid iteration.
- Investment in lunar infrastructure – Landing pads, communication relays, and surface power systems will be needed to support many missions.
Step-by-Step: A Framework for Monthly Lunar Landings
Below is a structured guide to the key actions NASA—and its partners—must take. Each step links to a deeper dive later in the guide.
Step 1: Revamp Lunar Lander Procurement
NASA currently uses the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program to buy robotic landing services from private companies. To reach 21 landings in 30 months, CLPS must be accelerated. That means:
- Issuing multiple task orders simultaneously instead of sequentially.
- Encouraging larger vendors (e.g., Astrobotic, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace) to scale production.
- Including incentive fees for on-time delivery.
Procurement documents should require vendors to demonstrate robust supply chain backups and redundant component sourcing.
Step 2: Strengthen Contractor Oversight and Quality Assurance
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and independent review teams must embed with contractors. Key actions:
- Conduct monthly design reviews with real-time telemetry analysis.
- Require hardware-in-the-loop testing for all critical subsystems (guidance, propulsion, thermal).
- Establish a “landing readiness review” board modeled after the human spaceflight flight readiness process.
Step 3: Fix Known Technical Problems from Previous Failures
Recent failures—such as Astrobotic's Peregrine lander (propulsion leak) and Intuitive Machines' IM-1 (navigation error)—provide clear lessons. Correction steps include:
- Redesigning valve seals and pressure regulation for propulsion systems.
- Adding redundant lidar and optical navigation sensors to handle dust and uneven terrain.
- Implementing full end-to-end landing simulations with actual flight software.
Step 4: Overhaul Supply Chain Management
Landers use thousands of components from niche suppliers. To avoid bottlenecks:
- NASA should create a “critical parts list” and work with the Defense Logistics Agency to prioritize production.
- Establish shared inventory pools for common items (e.g., flight-qualified rad-hard chips, valves, thrusters).
- Use digital twin models to predict supply chain disruptions before they cause delays.
Step 5: Develop Rapid Launch and Mission Operations Capabilities
Monthly landings mean monthly launches. This requires:
- Reserved slots on multiple rockets (Falcon 9, Vulcan, New Glenn) to avoid single-point failures.
- A 24/7 mission control staff rotation that can handle simultaneous surface ops.
- Automated landing sequencing to reduce operator workload.
Step 6: Build Surface Infrastructure for High−Cadence Operations
Landing 21 times will create debris, dust, and communication interference. Mitigations:
- Build of certified landing pads using robotic bulldozers or additive manufacturing.
- Deploy a network of communication relays (perhaps on a small lunar orbiter) to avoid blackouts.
- Pre-position power stations and thermal management units to support each new lander's two-week night survival.
Step 7: Implement Agile Mission Planning
Each landing carries different payloads from science instruments to demo rovers. A flexible integration process is needed:
- Create “payload load−and−go” kits that allow last-minute changes.
- Use interface standards (mechanical, electrical, data) so any lander can accept any payload.
- Maintain a ready reserve of one spare lander to slot in if a mission is delayed.
Common Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
Lessons from recent lunar landing attempts (and other high−cadence space projects) show repeating pitfalls:
Mistake 1: Assuming a single lander design can handle all missions
Fact: Different payload masses, orbit insertion periods, and landing sites require tailored lander configurations. Fix: NASA should contract for modular lander families with interchangeable propulsion and power modules.
Mistake 2: Underestimating the lunar night
Two weeks of darkness and extreme cold kill many landers. The Peregrine lander, for example, had limited battery life. Fix: Every cargo lander must include either radioisotope heaters, regenerative fuel cells, or solar arrays with high-efficiency batteries to survive the night and continue science.
Mistake 3: Poor communication between NASA and contractors
Delays in approving design changes or test deviations cascade. Fix: Establish a standing integrated product team that meets weekly and has authority to make small decisions without escalation.
Mistake 4: Over−reliance on a single supply chain node
A single engine supplier or valve manufacturer can be a bottleneck. Fix: Score each vendor's supply chain resilience as part of the selection process, and require certifications for alternative suppliers.
Mistake 5: Not accounting for landing site variability
Landing at the poles (shadowed craters) vs. equatorial plains requires different navigation and thermal designs. Fix: Require landers to be able to operate in at least two different lighting and terrain regimes, or design mission-specific variants.
Summary
NASA's vision of 21 lunar landings in 30 months is technically achievable but demands a complete transformation in procurement, oversight, supply chain, and operations. By revamping lander procurement, tightening quality assurance, fixing known technical problems, overhauling supply chain management, enabling rapid launches, building surface infrastructure, and implementing agile mission planning—while avoiding common mistakes like the lunar night trap and single-source dependencies—NASA can turn monthly Moon landings from a goal into a reality. The next two and a half years will determine whether the agency can execute at this unprecedented pace and pave the way for a sustainable human presence on the Moon.