NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) has been on a wild ride. After a sharp 20% rebound in the past month, shares now sit at around $13—a staggering 77% drop from their all-time high of over $50 last October. With a market cap of roughly $4.3 billion, the company is chasing a massive $10 trillion global clean energy opportunity. But is this beaten-down nuclear stock a steal, or are hidden risks lurking? We break it down with key questions and answers below.
1. Why Did NuScale Power’s Stock Fall So Dramatically?
NuScale Power’s stock plummeted from over $50 to about $13—a 77% decline—primarily due to regulatory delays, cost overruns, and project cancellations. The company’s flagship small modular reactor (SMR) project in Idaho was abruptly canceled in late 2023 after lead customer Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) pulled out, citing rising costs that made the project economically unfeasible. This shattered investor confidence, as NuScale had pinned its near-term revenue on that contract. Additionally, the broader clean energy sector faced headwinds from high interest rates and supply chain issues, further pressuring speculative growth stocks. While the recent 20% surge offers hope, the stock still trades far below its peak, reflecting lingering skepticism about the company’s path to profitability.
2. What Is the $10 Trillion Opportunity NuScale Is Chasing?
According to recent research, NuScale is targeting a $10 trillion global market for small modular reactors (SMRs). These compact nuclear plants can be factory-built and deployed faster than traditional reactors, making them ideal for replacing coal plants, powering remote industrial sites, and supporting data-center demand. NuScale’s proprietary design is the first and only SMR to receive U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approval, giving it a first-mover advantage. Customers range from utilities to tech giants seeking carbon-free 24/7 power. However, converting this massive addressable market into actual orders requires years of regulatory approvals, construction, and financing—meaning the $10 trillion figure is a long-term theoretical ceiling, not immediate revenue.
3. How Does NuScale’s Valuation Compare to Oklo?
NuScale’s current market cap of $4.3 billion is nearly three times smaller than that of competitor Oklo (NYSE: OKLO), despite Oklo being a younger company with no approved reactor design yet. Oklo’s higher valuation reflects investor optimism about its advanced fuel-cycle technology and partnerships with data-center operators. In contrast, NuScale’s valuation has been punished due to the canceled project and slower commercial progress. On a price-to-sales basis, NuScale trades at roughly 40x trailing revenue (negligible), while Oklo has zero revenue, making comparison tricky. Investors should view NuScale’s lower valuation as both a potential bargain and a red flag—the market is pricing in significant execution risk.
4. Should You Buy NuScale Stock Below $50?
If you are a long-term growth investor with high risk tolerance, buying NuScale below $50 could be compelling. The stock is down 77% from its peak, yet the company still has a first-mover advantage in SMRs, a certified design, and a massive addressable market. The recent 20% surge suggests positive momentum from new partnerships and government support (e.g., U.S. Department of Energy backing). However, investors must accept that the road to profitability is uncertain. NuScale has no commercial reactors in operation, and its next major project—likely in Romania or with U.S. utilities—may take years to materialize. If you can stomach volatility and have a 5-10 year horizon, the upside could be enormous. But those seeking short-term gains should look elsewhere.
5. What Are the Biggest Risks to Consider Before Investing?
Two major risks stand out. First, execution and financing risk: NuScale needs to secure new customers and project funding to replace the canceled Idaho deal. Without a clear near-term revenue pipeline, the company may need to dilute shareholders through secondary offerings. Second, regulatory and technical risk: SMRs are unproven at commercial scale, and any design flaw or regulatory setback could delay deployments for years. Additionally, competition from Oklo, TerraPower, and other SMR developers is intensifying. NuScale also faces macro risks like rising construction costs and high interest rates, which could make its SMRs less competitive versus natural gas or renewables. Always diversify and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
6. What’s the Long-Term Outlook for NuScale Power?
NuScale’s long-term outlook hinges on its ability to convert its approved design into real-world projects. The company is pursuing opportunities in Romania, Poland, and other Eastern European markets where coal plants are being phased out. Domestically, rising demand from AI data centers and manufacturing could accelerate interest in reliable nuclear power. Analysts project NuScale could reach breakeven by 2028-2030 if it secures 5-10 reactor orders. However, the stock remains highly speculative, with a high probability of volatility. For patient investors, the risk-reward ratio could be favorable, but only if NuScale delivers on its commercial promises. Keep an eye on quarterly updates for new contract announcements and funding news.